In Nov 2022, the price of lithium carbonate rose to 500,000 yuan (about KRW 91,245,000) per ton due to shortage in supply. With such unprecedented price of lithium carbonate, CATL even offered lithium carbonate rebate of 200,000yuan (about KRW 36.5 million) per ton to electric vehicle OEMs.
However, the price of lithium carbonate began to fall as news has been spreading of China's reduced electric vehicle subsidies and increased inventory in battery manufacturers, and plunged to 150,000 yuan (about 27.37 million won) per ton as of Apr 2023.
With the advent of the electric vehicle era, the
proportion of secondary batteries in the total lithium usage has increased from
40% in 2014 to about 80% in 2023. As such, the electric vehicle market has been
increasingly influenced by the impact of changes in the lithium market.
However, the long lead time (the time from mine excavation to production), the
nature of the mining market, made it difficult to satisfy the increased lithium
demand due to the growth of the electric vehicle market. As a result, volatility
of lithium price is increasing and has direct impact on corporate margins of EV
makers and secondary battery manufacturers.
Currently, lithium mining is taking place in a small
number of countries, including Chile and Australia. However, news of discovery
of huge amount of lithium deposits has been newly announced in countries such
as Bolivia, Iran, and India, and several countries including Europe and Africa
have reported that they will mine lithium. SNE Research predicts that there
will be total 24 lithium mining countries in 2030.
Reports of the discovery of lithium mines are raising
hopes that the deposits will fully meet the demand from the electric vehicle
market, but there are errors in this assumption. Only a few mines are
commercially viable in the stage of exploration, and there is long lead time of
5-10 years till actual mining. Apart from the increase in global reserves, the
actual supply of the lithium mining companies and the mines should be closely
monitored. The balance between supply forecast and demand in the secondary
battery market will be an important means for future upstream market strategies
and predicting price fluctuations.
This report describes the overall market status, policies
and strategies by different countries, and prediction of supply, demand, and
price for lithium metal. Especially, forecast of the lithium demand in this
report provides specific figures for each battery manufacturer and each cathode
material product. And also, the report forecasts lithium supply by considering
the production volume of all mining projects. From these two figures, we create
a model for demand-supply balance scenario and predict price till 2030.
We hope that the report will help readers understand the
overall lithium metal industry and prepare for future fluctuations of lithium
raw material by looking at the outlook provided by the insightful report of SNE
Research.
The strong
points of this report are;
l
Lithium production forecast and lithium policies
of existing and new lithium mining countries till 2030
l
Outlook for how major battery manufacturers
secure lithium and consumption of lithium till 2030
l
Outlook for chemical composition of cathode
materials and lithium demand by product till 2030
*LFP, Mid-Ni 523/622, High Ni NCM/NCMA
Ni>80%, LCO, LCA, NMx, LMO, NCM 111/424
l
A forecasting scenario of adjusted amount of
lithium production based on supply and demand and the balance between supply
and demand of lithium metal
l
Forecast of the lithium price based on
processing cost and supply and demand in major mining countries till 2030
This report describes the above points in total 11
chapters, and the followings are the contents.
1.
Overview of secondary batteries
1.1
What are secondary batteries?
1.2
Raw materials for secondary battery
components
1.3
Cathode materials
1.3.1 Components
1.3.2 1.3.2 Content of
major materials
1.3.3 1.3.3 Metal
content (Kg/KWh)
1.3.4 Note) Mineral
content per one electric vehicle
2.
Overview of lithium metal
2.1
Overview of lithium
2.2
Applications and characteristics by product
Note) Lithium
carbonate and lithium hydroxide
2.3
Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (Li2CO3,LCE)
2.4
Forms of natural deposit
2.5
Production ratio by ore type
2.6
Lithium usage ratio by industry
3.
Lithium mining technology
3.1
Mining process – brine type
3.2
Mining process – hard-rock type
3.3
Technology development for lithium recovery
3.4
Process comparison of lithium extraction
Note) Trends of
recycling regulations in major countries
Note) Risks of lithium
ESG
4.
Lithium policy by country
4.2
Lithium policy in Central · South America
4.2.1 Chile
4.2.2 Brazil
4.2.3 Argentina
4.2.4 Bolivia
4.2.5 Mexico
Note) Latest
lithium policy in Central · South America
4.3
Lithium policy in Australia
4.4
Lithium policy in Europe
4.4.1 Portugal
4.4.2 UK
4.5 Lithium policy
in Africa
4.5.1 Zimbabwe
5.
Policy of major countries for key minerals
5.1
Lithium policy of major countries
5.2
Lithium policy of EU
5.3
Lithium policy of US
Note) Critical Raw
Materials Act (CRMA) & Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
5.4
Lithium policy of Japan
5.5
Lithium policy of Korea
6.
Market status of major lithium producing
countries
6.1
Lithium market in China
6.1.1 Production
capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
6.1.2 Capacity
of production facilities of lithium carbonate by region (2022)
6.1.3 Capacity
of production facilities of lithium hydroxide by region (2022)
6.1.4 Import/export
of lithium carbonate/ lithium hydroxide in 2022
6.2 Lithium market
in Chile
6.2.1 Lithium
project by region
6.2.2 Export of
lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
6.3 Lithium market
in Australia
6.3.1 Export of
lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
6.3.2 Major regions
of lithium deposits and projects
6.3.3 3 major
mining companies for lithium
6.4 Lithium market
in Argentina
6.4.1 Export of
lithium and major import countries
6.4.2 Major areas
of lithium deposits and projects
6.5 Lithium market
in Brazil
6.5.1 Major mines
and export route
6.5.2 3 major
mining companies for lithium
6.6 Lithium market
in Zimbabwe
6.6.1 Major lithium
projects
7.
Status for lithium material and outlook for supply/demand
(2021-2030)
7.1
Outlook for secondary battery demand
7.2
Outlook for chemical composition of cathode
materials
7.3
Outlook for lithium demand by cathode
material product
7.4
Outlook for lithium demand by industry
7.5
Outlook for lithium usage by major battery
makers
7.5.1 Korea
7.5.2 China
7.5.3 Japan
7.5.4 US
7.5.5 EU
7.6 Lithium
reserves (2023)
7.7 Global lithium
supply
7.8 New lithium
mining countries in 2022 and 2030
7.9 Outlook for
global lithium supply
7.10 Balance of supply/demand
of lithium material
7.11 Future
lithium supply scenario till 2030 based on balance of supply and demand
7.12 Outlook for
mining by region
7.12.1 Australia
7.12.2 China
7.12.3 South
America
7.12.4 North
America
7.12.5 Europe
7.12.6 Africa
Note) Demand
forecasting methodology
Note) Mineral
development lead time
Note) Development
status of lithium mine plants
8.
How manufacturers secure lithium supply
8.1
Global EV OEMs
8.1.1 GM
8.1.2 Ford
8.1.3 Stellantis
8.1.4 Tesla
8.1.5 Prime Planet
Energy & Solutions, PPES
8.1.6 Volkswagen
8.2 Battery
manufacturers
8.2.3 Samsung SDI
8.2.4 CATL
8.2.5 BYD
8.2.6 Northvolt
9.
Analysis of lithium price
9.1 Structure of lithium
price in supply agreement
9.2 Long-term lithium
price in supply agreement
9.3 Comparison of
processing cost of brine type and hard-rock type
Note) Cost
comparison of major mines in Australia
Note) Cost
comparison of major salt lakes in China
Note) Cost
analysis of lithium extraction from spodumene and lepidolite in China
9.4 Price trends
of major metal materials for secondary batteries
9.5 Price trends
of lithium carbonate (2013-2023)
9.6 Outlook for
lithium price as per supply/demand till 2030
10.
Lithium mines by country
10.1 Australia
10.2 Chile
10.3 China
10.4 Bolivia
10.5 Argentina
10.6 Czech
10.7 India
11.
Analysis of raw material manufacturers
11.1 Albemarle
11.2 SQM
11.3 Pilbara Minerals
11.4 Tianqi
Lithium